Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
